What is a Good Decision?

Posted in October 2016 - in ,

The best decision you can make is actually making a decision. You probably think we have lost the plot, but let’s consider this closer.

When you are faced with making a decision all you can do is weigh up the factors you have on hand at that moment and then make the decision.  This is exactly the same as the umpire who makes the call on a play.  Just as the umpire, we do not have the ability to call on hawk eye or refer to the third umpire or challenge the call for a slow motion replay.  In our game we refer to this as hindsight marketing.  They are plenty of those players out there that make no decision but then spend their time shooting down the ones that do make a decision.

The falling market is one of the hardest markets to sell your grain into and that is what we have faced this year.  It’s the whole “how do you catch a falling knife scenario”!  You can either take the pain and grab it on the way down or let it bottom and pick it up off the floor.  Which is better?

Chart 1: Best daily Kwinana cash price (August – June)

apw1

 

This chart shows the APW multigrade cash prices from 2011 to 2016.  We have started it from August because hindsight does not help at this stage in the season. The red line is 2016.  We are trading at miserable levels but it is important to recognise reality.  It is highly unlikely that we will follow the green line of 2011, so a hard decision needs to be made about where we travel from here till harvest and beyond.

Is selling wheat profitable at current levels? Do your numbers accurately and you may be surprised.

We are all afraid of selling grain into the falling market because we are scared that we will sell and then it will turn, leaving our sale at the bottom.  Or is it just pride that we think our grain is worth more than this?  Both scenarios are probably true to some extent but do you know what….the world doesn’t really care.  Wheat is wheat at the end of the day.  If you do happen to sell at the bottom of the market it doesn’t really matter.  Yes your grain is probably worth more than current prices BUT, will that make the price go up, No.

The market will eventually turn and trade back up but will it do so before you need to sell.  Holding grain till next year is a strategy if you have a plan attached to that.  Just holding grain is not a strategy by itself.  The ostrich sticking its head in the sand or effectively just closing your eyes is not a proven way to achieve a good outcome. It costs more to hold grain than many people believe. This has certainly been shown this year with the many people who have held grain without a plan. We have been sold out of old season grain for a long time.  That was a good decision. These decisions can only be made when you have good information, good advice, good execution and know your numbers. Take the stress out of life and out-source the work to people who know what they are doing.

Chart 2: Best Feed Barley Kwinana cash price (August–Mar)

feed-barley

This chart show shows the Feed barley cash price from 2011 to 2016. The red line is 2016.  As you can see this is in no better shape than wheat.  Hoping for a repeat of 2014 is not likely. The Chinese have not entered the market in anywhere near the fashion of a year ago.

Don’t get caught with prices of yesteryear in your head thinking that they are normal.  Face reality and realise that this year will not get to the numbers that have been there before.  Hopefully yield will be increasing and therefore total “gross” dollars at the end of day are increased.

Many will watch the falling market go all the way to the bottom.  Many will then lament that they didn’t sell earlier or sell more.  A few will be tough enough to make the big decision to sell into the falling market and probably end up with a better average than most once all tonnage is sold.

Don’t be a hindsight marketer and tell everyone what you would have done.  If you can’t make the tough decisions then employ someone who can.  Look at the big picture which includes yields, total deliveries and total income for the year. In many areas of the state it is looking like being a good yield outcome for 2016.

 

 

 

What our customers have to say
We decided to engage the services of Ten Tigers because we found we were becoming increasingly overwhelmed by the grain marketing decisions we had to make. We were sometimes making poor decisions because we had become indecisive and didn’t have clear target prices in place. We have found the staff at Ten Tigers an absolute pleasure to deal with. They are proactive in keeping lines of communication open and the paperwork they provide us with is easy to understand and very useful. The advice Ten Tigers has provided exactly what we needed. They have helped us set and reach targets and we have already seen the benefits of the grain marketing strategies they helped us put in place.
Ten Tigers has been my grain marketing advisor now for a period of 12 years. I have entrusted Chris Tonkin and his team to assist and direct me in the selling of my grains to suit my needs. With their experience, knowledge and regular contact and updates, I have been able to concentrate on the physical and practical side of farming without the added stress of watching the markets and possibly making wrong decisions. Allowing Ten Tigers to be my “personal broker” has put me in a position where I can relax, travel and profit from my every day farming life.
Ten Tigers is a business that specialises in grain marketing and consulting. We use Ten Tigers to help us achieve the best price for our grain, to find out what is happening in the world’s grain market to date and to help with marketing strategies. The best thing is, all this can be achieved by just a few text messages per day and / or a quick phone call while I stay busy growing as much grain as I can. I find them a great deal of benefit to our grain farming business.
Ten Tigers has helped our grain operation grow through a well-balanced marketing program of all our grain types in the current season and beyond. Ten Tigers has given me a greater understanding of our grain business through a fully transparent summary at the completion of each marketing season. Ten Tigers has given our business confidence to expand grain production by allocating achievable pricing target levels on all our grain types. Our business can better allocate time towards the production side knowing that Ten Tigers is managing our marketing in a professional, unemotional manner.
In the ten years we have been working with Chris and his team there has been a huge transformation in grain marketing in our business. Ten Tigers has made these steps a comfortable journey instead of the hill climb they appear to be when we receive correspondence from all different grain identities and our legal obligations we need to meet. Ten Tigers has assisted us to achieve higher daily prices regularly with good communication and sound advice. Ten Tigers has been an important member of our business allowing us to concentrate on growing our grain with the knowledge that Ten Tigers is there to worry about the marketing, optimisation and filling of contracts. The very detailed information that is supplied to us makes record keeping and entering g details into our accounting program very simple and quick.
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